The concept of ‘green growth’ implies that a wide range of developmental objectives,
such as job creation, economic prosperity and poverty alleviation, can be easily
reconciled with environmental sustainability. This study, however, argues that rather
than being win-win, green growth is similar to most types of policy reforms that
advocate the acceptance of short-term adjustment costs in the expectation of long-term
gains. In particular, green growth policies often encourage developing countries to
redesign their national strategies in ways that might be inconsistent with natural
comparative advantages and past investments. In turn, there are often sizeable antireform
coalitions whose interests may conflict with a green growth agenda. We
illustrate this argument using case studies of Malawi, Mozambique, and South Africa,
which are engaged in development strategies that involve inorganic fertilizers, biofuels
production, and coal-based energy, respectively. Each of these countries is pursuing an
environmentally suboptimal strategy but nonetheless addressing critical development
needs, including food security, fuel, and electricity. We show that adopting a green
growth approach would not only be economically costly but also generate substantial
domestic resistance, especially amongst the poor.
Keywords: development policy, green growth, political economy, Southern Africa
JEL classification: D72, N57, P48, Q00