The study assesses the variability and trends of both meteorological and hydrological droughts from
1970 to 2013 in Lake Malawi and Shire River basins using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and
standardized precipitation and evaporation index (SPEI) for meteorological droughts and the lake level
change index (LLCI) for hydrological droughts. Trends and slopes in droughts and drought drivers are
estimated using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope, respectively. Results suggest that meteorological
droughts are increasing due to a decrease in precipitation which is exacerbated by an increase in
temperature (potential evapotranspiration). The hydrological system of Lake Malawi seems to have a
>24-month memory towards meteorological conditions, since the 36-month SPEI can predict hydrological
droughts 10 months in advance. The study has found the critical lake level that would trigger
hydrological drought to be 474.1 m a.s.l. The increase in drought is a concern as this will have serious
impacts on water resources and hydropower supply in Malawi.